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Cover -- Contents -- I. Introduction -- II. The Theoretical Framework -- A. The Household Sector -- Consumption and Saving -- Bank Intermediated Households -- Capital Market Intermediated Households -- Credit Constrained Households -- Labor Supply -- B. The Construction Sector -- Housing Demand -- Residential Investment -- Housing Supply -- C. The Production Sector -- Output Demand -- Labor Demand and Business Investment -- Output Supply -- D. The Banking Sector -- Credit Demand -- Funding Demand and Bank Capital Accumulation -- Credit Supply -- E. The Trade Sector -- The Export Sector -- Export Demand -- Export Supply -- The Import Sector -- Import Demand -- Import Supply -- F. Monetary, Fiscal, and Macroprudential Policy -- The Monetary Authority -- The Fiscal Authority -- The Macroprudential Authority -- G. Market Clearing Conditions -- III. The Empirical Framework -- A. Endogenous Variables -- B. Exogenous Variables -- IV. Parameterization -- A. Data Transformations -- B. Parameter Values -- Calibrated Parameters -- Estimated Parameters -- C. Output Gap Estimates -- V. Inference -- A. Impulse Responses -- Macroeconomic Shocks -- Financial Shocks -- Policy Shocks -- Terms of Trade Shocks -- B. Historical Decompositions -- VI. Forecasting -- VII. Conclusion -- Appendix A. Data Description -- Appendix B. Variables and Equations -- Endogenous Variables -- Economy Specific -- Global -- Exogenous Variables -- Economy Specific -- Global -- Appendix C. Tables and Figures -- Table 1. Calibrated Parameter Values -- Table 2. Estimated Parameter Values -- Figure 1. Output Gap Estimates -- Figure 2. Impulse Responses to a Domestic Productivity Shock -- Figure 3. Impulse Responses to a Foreign Productivity Shock -- Figure 4. Impulse Responses to a Domestic Consumption Demand Shock -- Figure 5. Impulse Responses to a Foreign Consumption Demand Shock.

Cover -- Contents -- I. Introduction -- II. The Theoretical Framework -- A. The Household Sector -- Consumption and Saving -- Bank Intermediated Households -- Capital Market Intermediated Households -- Credit Constrained Households -- Labor Supply -- B. The Construction Sector -- Housing Demand -- Residential Investment -- Housing Supply -- C. The Production Sector -- Output Demand -- Labor Demand and Business Investment -- Output Supply -- D. The Banking Sector -- Credit Demand -- Funding Demand and Bank Capital Accumulation -- Credit Supply -- E. The Trade Sector -- The Export Sector -- Export Demand -- Export Supply -- The Import Sector -- Import Demand -- Import Supply -- F. Monetary, Fiscal, and Macroprudential Policy -- The Monetary Authority -- The Fiscal Authority -- The Macroprudential Authority -- G. Market Clearing Conditions -- III. The Empirical Framework -- A. Endogenous Variables -- B. Exogenous Variables -- Conditional Means -- Conditional Variances -- IV. Estimation -- A. Data Transformations -- B. Estimation Procedure -- C. Estimation Results -- Calibrated Parameters -- Estimated Parameters -- Table 1 . Model Specification Test Results -- Figure 1 . Conditional Variances of Structural Shocks -- V. Inference -- Figure 2 . Historical Decompositions of Output -- Figure 3 . Historical Decompositions of Financial Conditions -- Figure 4 . Historical Decompositions of Output Volatility -- Figure 5 . Historical Decompositions of Financial Conditions Volatility -- VI. Conclusion -- Appendix A . Data Description -- Appendix B . Estimation Results -- Table 2 . Calibrated Parameter Values -- Table 3 . Estimated Parameter Values -- References.

This paper develops a panel unobserved components model of the monetary transmission mechanism in the world economy, disaggregated into its fifteen largest national economies. This structural macroeconometric model features extensive linkages between the real and financial sectors, both within and across economies. A variety of monetary policy analysis and forecasting applications of the estimated model are demonstrated, based on a novel Bayesian framework for conditioning on judgment

This paper conducts an assessment of external price competitiveness for Mozambique. A variety of indicators suggest that Mozambique has recently lost external price competitiveness with respect to its major trading partners. Consistent with these indicators, an exchange rate assessment indicates that the metical is overvalued by 26 to 41 percent in real effective terms. If sustained, an overvaluation of this magnitude has the potential to retard economic growth and jeopardize external stability, calling for an adjustment of monetary policy to gradually restore external price competitiveness